121,243 views Apr 20, 2023
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The world is expecting Ukraine to begin a spring counterattack once the weather dries up. How will it affect the war? This video examines the possibility that the offensive could lead to an end of the invasion. In particular, we cover three possibilities.
1. First, Ukraine could outright win.
2. Second, it could demonstrate to Russia that the ultimate outcome will be favorable to Ukraine, thereby inducing Russia to withdraw.
3. Finally, it could put Putin in a position where winning is very unlikely, forcing him to confront possible challengers at home rather than trying to gamble for resurrection abroad. Although none of these are particularly likely, we will investigate the conditions where they could arise.
The Upcoming Ukrainian Counteroffensive 0:51
An Outright Ukrainian Victory 7:55
Uprisings in Moscow 8:43
Communicating Ukrainian Strength 11:47
Chinese Intelligence Sharing 15:35
Putin’s Personal Incentives 19:54
Chinese Peace Subsidies 23:52
Overall Outlook 24:52
Lines on Pants Media licensed under CC BY 2.0 (https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/… From U.S. Secretary of Defense: https://www.flickr.com/photos/secdef/… https://flickr.com/photos/68842444@N0… Media licensed under CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/… From Ministry of Defense of Ukraine: https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministr… https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministr… https://www.flickr.com/photos/ministr… https://armyinform.com.ua/2022/12/07/… Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/… From Rosavtodor.ru: http://rosavtodor.ru/about/upravlenie… From Kremlin.ru: http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/presi… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/security-… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://www.en.kremlin.ru/events/presi… http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/persons/… http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden… http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne… http://www.kremlin.ru/events/presiden… http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president… http://kremlin.ru/events/president/ne…
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How Ukraine’s Spring Offensive Could End the War: A Tale of Power, Information, and Russian Politics | https://bit.ly/3UTAzBi | War does not determine who is right – only who is left ~ Bertrand Russell
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